Monday, May 7, 2007
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Dear Cavs:
Fellas, 81 points doesn't cut it. I know you hadn't played since the beginning of the week, but you guys have to score more. I know you won. If you score 81 again on Tuesday night, you'll lose. I guarantee it. Kidd won't turn the ball over as much and Carter will hit more shots. Don't rely on the Nets to make mistakes. Simply score. And do it in bunches. Want some more advice? If LeBron hits you in stride with a beautiful pass, don't let it bounce off you out-of-bounds. And free throws are called free throws because they're easy. So make more of them. Don't allow the Nets to hang around in Game 2. If you win, they have zero momentum going back to New Jersey. Doesn't that sound nice?
-NHH
-NHH
Cavs/Nets
A very intriguing series. First, I give the Cavs the edge and expect them to win in 6 or 7.
This is the Cavs' series to take thanks to some fortunate matchups. The Nets are absurdly outmanned in the front court, with Jason Collins and Mikki Moore against Z and Gooden, plus Varejao hanging with Krstic as the big man off the bench. Overall, we have the size edge and the hustle edge. I expect Z to pour in some sweet sky hooks, and I expect Drew and Andy to pound the glass and take away any and all offensive rebounding opportunities the Nets might be thinking about. I want to see Z average 16 points and 10 rebounds; Drew 14 and 12; Varejao 10 and 8.
Lebron can neutralize Jefferson on defense, holding him to 14 points/game or something slightly below his average. I don't care if he has a big offensive series. In fact, this would be an excellent time to average 10 assists a game, with the big men towering above the opposition just waiting for a good feed.
But perhaps the biggest key of all will be the defense of Hughes and Pavlovic. Kidd to Carter will be a nonstop challenge. Can Hughes get in Kidd's face? Can he get a couple of steals per game, and stay with the Nets' best player? Again, Hughes' offense will not be critical. He must play rock solid defense and that's it. Pavlovic has really improved on D this year, and he has an enormous test in front of him guarding Carter. Regardless of what happens, Carter will score a lot. But will he average 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting, or 23 points on 7 of 16? The answer to that question will be the difference in the series.
This is the Cavs' series to take thanks to some fortunate matchups. The Nets are absurdly outmanned in the front court, with Jason Collins and Mikki Moore against Z and Gooden, plus Varejao hanging with Krstic as the big man off the bench. Overall, we have the size edge and the hustle edge. I expect Z to pour in some sweet sky hooks, and I expect Drew and Andy to pound the glass and take away any and all offensive rebounding opportunities the Nets might be thinking about. I want to see Z average 16 points and 10 rebounds; Drew 14 and 12; Varejao 10 and 8.
Lebron can neutralize Jefferson on defense, holding him to 14 points/game or something slightly below his average. I don't care if he has a big offensive series. In fact, this would be an excellent time to average 10 assists a game, with the big men towering above the opposition just waiting for a good feed.
But perhaps the biggest key of all will be the defense of Hughes and Pavlovic. Kidd to Carter will be a nonstop challenge. Can Hughes get in Kidd's face? Can he get a couple of steals per game, and stay with the Nets' best player? Again, Hughes' offense will not be critical. He must play rock solid defense and that's it. Pavlovic has really improved on D this year, and he has an enormous test in front of him guarding Carter. Regardless of what happens, Carter will score a lot. But will he average 32 points on 11 of 16 shooting, or 23 points on 7 of 16? The answer to that question will be the difference in the series.
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Basketball is Easy
Ok. Now is as good a time as any to jump in here again. First, let's get a couple things straight about Golden State:
1. It sure is an exciting time for the Warriors right now, but the entire season has actually been fascinating and thrilling.
a. Monta Ellis and Biedrins both had breakout seasons, which is not something that was apparent during the Dallas series (although Monta did get the recognition with the most-improved award). I think it's interesting how little of a presence Monta had during this last series, I think there's a number of reasons why, but it's hard to describe how absolutely nuts he was during the regular season, simply careening to the basket with no regard for who might be in his way and floating to the finish. He also possesses a preternatural calmness and is, at the age of 21, destined to become the league's next Chauncey Billups.
b. Dunleavy and Troy Murphy (and McLeod and Diogu), who were simply deadweights here, were finally unloaded for SJax, Baby Al, the nonentity Josh Powell, and Sarunas, who pretty much doesn't play a minute but is the best cheerleader a team could have. Seriously, watch the Warriors bench during the next series. Sarunus is the one jumping and hopping and clapping and grinning in his warm-up suit the entire time. The Pacers unloaded their problems and got some nice boring white guys in exchange, but we got the better deal. We got tremendous players with tremendous hearts (see my most important point re: SJax below).
c. J-Rich was essentially out the entire season until February, and when he came back Baron was out pretty much for the entire month of February. Playoff pushes bring a sense of elevated purpose and determination, but the 21-5 record starting with the March 5 game against the Pistons, Baron's first game back and their first true game as a whole, uninjured team - that was no fluke. Next season they will be between 4th and 7th in the West, so squeaking in as the 8th seed was exciting but a bit misleading.
2. Stephen Jackson is not a madman. Come on, people! He is passionate, and he has quite a temper (and he knows it). That's about it. The brawl and the gun incident aren't even worth getting into. He is fiercely loyal, he has a hard time controlling his temper, he is so respectful and reverent of Baron (who he always calls "our franchise player") and his teammates, Tim Duncan has called him the best teammate he's ever had, etc. But the idea that he is a loose cannon is silly. Here is a nice article about him.
3. The Warriors aren't just running on emotion, and their style is not helter-skelter. They are tough and scrappy and smart. The fact that they are the Mavs' achilles heel is just funny and certainly does not mean that ultimately they are a better team than the Mavs. It's an interesting situation. It was too bad that they squandered the nine point lead they miraculously managed to get in game 5 after having played terribly the whole game, but it was the Mavs who were on borrowed time with that matchup, not the Warriors. I think that was clear (hello 2005-2006 Pistons). It was sweeter to win at home, anyway. The Warriors are not a well-oiled machine like Dallas or the Pistons, and they use that to their advantage. Don Nelson is really freaking smart. They are a tremendous team and they have such heart, and all of these people like Matt Barnes and Pietrus and SJax are finding their places at last. It's a great story, and they play great basketball. Also, Baron and Avery Johnson's press conferences after game 6 were so eloquent and touching. Seriously, public speaking in the best traditions of oration. In the absurd post-game glow I believe I even invoked Pericles. Things will even themselves out eventually (unless the Warriors careen into the finals!), but the energy and emotion and momentum and masterful fucking basketball - this is what sports fans live for!
Anyway. It's going to be a fun playoffs! After half of this first Pistons/Bulls game it seems safe to say that the Pistons will dominate but the young Bulls will take a game or even two. I feel confident about the next Warriors series, and I pray to God that the Suns will hold off the Spurs because we can run with the Suns!
Two great quotes from the Warriors/Dallas series:
Monta Ellis, on not being nervous before the first game: "Basketball is easy."
Avery Johnson in the press conference after game 6, on why the Warriors won the series: "They just did a good job, of having good offense and good defense."
1. It sure is an exciting time for the Warriors right now, but the entire season has actually been fascinating and thrilling.
a. Monta Ellis and Biedrins both had breakout seasons, which is not something that was apparent during the Dallas series (although Monta did get the recognition with the most-improved award). I think it's interesting how little of a presence Monta had during this last series, I think there's a number of reasons why, but it's hard to describe how absolutely nuts he was during the regular season, simply careening to the basket with no regard for who might be in his way and floating to the finish. He also possesses a preternatural calmness and is, at the age of 21, destined to become the league's next Chauncey Billups.
b. Dunleavy and Troy Murphy (and McLeod and Diogu), who were simply deadweights here, were finally unloaded for SJax, Baby Al, the nonentity Josh Powell, and Sarunas, who pretty much doesn't play a minute but is the best cheerleader a team could have. Seriously, watch the Warriors bench during the next series. Sarunus is the one jumping and hopping and clapping and grinning in his warm-up suit the entire time. The Pacers unloaded their problems and got some nice boring white guys in exchange, but we got the better deal. We got tremendous players with tremendous hearts (see my most important point re: SJax below).
c. J-Rich was essentially out the entire season until February, and when he came back Baron was out pretty much for the entire month of February. Playoff pushes bring a sense of elevated purpose and determination, but the 21-5 record starting with the March 5 game against the Pistons, Baron's first game back and their first true game as a whole, uninjured team - that was no fluke. Next season they will be between 4th and 7th in the West, so squeaking in as the 8th seed was exciting but a bit misleading.
2. Stephen Jackson is not a madman. Come on, people! He is passionate, and he has quite a temper (and he knows it). That's about it. The brawl and the gun incident aren't even worth getting into. He is fiercely loyal, he has a hard time controlling his temper, he is so respectful and reverent of Baron (who he always calls "our franchise player") and his teammates, Tim Duncan has called him the best teammate he's ever had, etc. But the idea that he is a loose cannon is silly. Here is a nice article about him.
3. The Warriors aren't just running on emotion, and their style is not helter-skelter. They are tough and scrappy and smart. The fact that they are the Mavs' achilles heel is just funny and certainly does not mean that ultimately they are a better team than the Mavs. It's an interesting situation. It was too bad that they squandered the nine point lead they miraculously managed to get in game 5 after having played terribly the whole game, but it was the Mavs who were on borrowed time with that matchup, not the Warriors. I think that was clear (hello 2005-2006 Pistons). It was sweeter to win at home, anyway. The Warriors are not a well-oiled machine like Dallas or the Pistons, and they use that to their advantage. Don Nelson is really freaking smart. They are a tremendous team and they have such heart, and all of these people like Matt Barnes and Pietrus and SJax are finding their places at last. It's a great story, and they play great basketball. Also, Baron and Avery Johnson's press conferences after game 6 were so eloquent and touching. Seriously, public speaking in the best traditions of oration. In the absurd post-game glow I believe I even invoked Pericles. Things will even themselves out eventually (unless the Warriors careen into the finals!), but the energy and emotion and momentum and masterful fucking basketball - this is what sports fans live for!
Anyway. It's going to be a fun playoffs! After half of this first Pistons/Bulls game it seems safe to say that the Pistons will dominate but the young Bulls will take a game or even two. I feel confident about the next Warriors series, and I pray to God that the Suns will hold off the Spurs because we can run with the Suns!
Two great quotes from the Warriors/Dallas series:
Monta Ellis, on not being nervous before the first game: "Basketball is easy."
Avery Johnson in the press conference after game 6, on why the Warriors won the series: "They just did a good job, of having good offense and good defense."
Friday, May 4, 2007
A Rainy Night in Oakland
That was a tremendous series. I am so relieved that game 5 did not set into motion an unjust collapse. Baron's 1st half injury was so uncalled for, cosmically. BUT THE WARRIORS WIN. They were just a much tougher and better team. Dirk as MVP is really going to be embarassing for the league. MVP's don't shoot only 3 field goal attempts in the 2nd half of an elimination game. The Warriors will roll into the Western Conference Finals -- Houston or Utah will not be difficult, as long as the W's can maintain their mental identity as the underdogs, and can stay healthy. Steve Kerr said on the radio tonight, the Spurs are the only team in the West that are definitely better than the Warriors. Warriors/Suns could be a toss of the dice. Or, at least, like tossing the dice at a craps table, where you're probably going to lose but you feel like it's 50/50 anyway!
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
Talkin' baseball (Indians baseball)
The baseball season has gone so phantastically well for Cleveland. This should in no way be a taken as a prophesy for the future, or anything other than a 1/7th of the season assessment.
But it's been nice.
Fact 1: With tonight's win, the Indians have won 8 of 9 series so far. The only of those 8 that were sweeps were two-game series against Minnesota and Texas, but consistency is the most important thing, and winning 2 of 3 over and over speaks volumes.
Fact 2: The pitching has been sick. And I'm not referring to Westbrook, who I assume has some sort of injury after leaving tonight's game after one inning. The staff has not given up more than seven runs all year. Though the team era is 4.2, about average in this pitching-dominant year, the bullpen has been really tight, Borowski's doing his thing, and the starters have consistently kept the offense in the game.
Fact 3: Anecdotally, every close situation seems to be going Cleveland's way. Extra innings games, rallies - it's that bellwether, a spirit of intangibility, that I haven't felt since 1995 really. Perhaps I'm being premature but the team seems to be gelling. I just kind of knew Hafner would knock in the game winner tonight.
Fact 4: Sabathia is being remunerated for his efforts, finally, with the offensive cushioning he deserves. It would take a significant injury to keep him from 20 wins this season.
Fact 5: We've been tough in the Central in a short sample so far, proving ourselves against two good opponents in the Twins and White Sox. The first series against Detroit will be critical.
But it's been nice.
Fact 1: With tonight's win, the Indians have won 8 of 9 series so far. The only of those 8 that were sweeps were two-game series against Minnesota and Texas, but consistency is the most important thing, and winning 2 of 3 over and over speaks volumes.
Fact 2: The pitching has been sick. And I'm not referring to Westbrook, who I assume has some sort of injury after leaving tonight's game after one inning. The staff has not given up more than seven runs all year. Though the team era is 4.2, about average in this pitching-dominant year, the bullpen has been really tight, Borowski's doing his thing, and the starters have consistently kept the offense in the game.
Fact 3: Anecdotally, every close situation seems to be going Cleveland's way. Extra innings games, rallies - it's that bellwether, a spirit of intangibility, that I haven't felt since 1995 really. Perhaps I'm being premature but the team seems to be gelling. I just kind of knew Hafner would knock in the game winner tonight.
Fact 4: Sabathia is being remunerated for his efforts, finally, with the offensive cushioning he deserves. It would take a significant injury to keep him from 20 wins this season.
Fact 5: We've been tough in the Central in a short sample so far, proving ourselves against two good opponents in the Twins and White Sox. The first series against Detroit will be critical.
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