Tuesday, May 29, 2007
1/2-time
alright, well, halftime of pistons-cavs game 4. if the cavs win tonight, there will presumably be a lot of blogging about the rest of the series. but first, do any cleveland fans hold any rational insight into the travesty that is the back of drew gooden's head? it looks like an on/off switch. or maybe he just grows it to keep his head band from slipping off of his bald head? someone explain the astroturf ponytail patch. it hurts me.
Friday, May 25, 2007
2nd half adjustment statistics
An interesting stat from the game last night was that in the past four games, the Cavs were outscored by an average of 10 points in the third quarter. WOW!
This is completely in line with something that Dan was saying earlier in the week:
"Mike Brown's inability to make halftime adjusts is legendary in these parts and it could very well be the team's downfall."
I wanted to come with a statistic which I think captures that inability to make 2nd half adjustments. The logic is as follows, which I think follows some of the logic JDanziger proposed after my up-at-half analysis earlier:
(1) A good 2nd half adjustment is marked by a shift in the score in the second half. If you are losing at halftime, and you make a good 2nd half adjustment then you should be more likely to win the game then if you did not make a 2nd half adjustment.
(2) Therefore, if you are GOOD at making 2nd half adjustments, then the proportion of games you win when you are down at half should be closer to the proportion of games that you win when you are up at the half (proportional, because it is feasible that a team could make good 2nd half adjustments, but win very few games overall). There is a confound with teams that just blow leads - which I will address below.
Top 5 teams who are MUCH MORE LIKELY TO WIN IF THEY ARE UP AT THE HALF;
If you didn't follow my logic above, these are the teams who FAIL TO MAKE 2ND HALF CORRECTIONS WHEN THEY ARE LOSING.
(1) KNICKS
(2) SUNS
(3) BULLS
(4) CAVS
(5) CLIPPERS
Something seems right about these teams - esp. KNICKS, SUNS and CAVS. This seems to support Dan's point, the CAVS are 40-9 when winning at the half, 10-23 (or ~30%) otherwise. However, it is not the worst company to be in.
Top 8 teams for whom it matters least if they are up at the half;
I am saying these are the teams who, when they are losing adjust and come back to win or teams who BLOW LEADS. In brackets is the winning % when up at the half. Teams with a LOW % probably blow leads (think about it - the CELTICS LOSE AS MANY GAMES THEY LEAD AT HALF TIME AS THEY WIN).
(1) MAVS (91%)
(2) T-WOLVES (55%)
(3) BUCKS (51%)
(4) CELTICS (50%)
(5) NUGGETS (68%)
(6) JAZZ (74%)
(7) PACERS (63%)
(8) NETS (65%)
I am tossing the T-Wolves, Bucks and Celts whose winning % on these games is significantly below the league average, leaving my FINAL FIVE GOOD ADJUSTERS
MAVS, NUGS, JAZZ, PACERS, NETS
This resolves some of my questions on whether the MAVS or SUNS were a better team this year. The SUNS were up at HALF 8 more times than the MAVS and their records were virtually indistiguishable. But the MAVS managed to win 2/3 of the games that they were losing at half, while the SUNS only won 1/3 of the games. That is awesome (They are the only team who wins the majority of the games they are losing at half - the next best team is the JAZZ who win 2/5). Their winning % when they WERE LOSING AT HALFTIME was better than ALL BUT THREE TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE OVERALL WINNING %.
The SPURS were up at HALF more than any other team in the league, with a shocking 68 games (7 more than the suns, 15 more than the jazz and mavs who were tied). However, when they were losing at the half - the only won 4/14 games. BAD AND BORING!
The PISTONS to finish up the remaining playoff teams are pretty middling. They do well when they at winning - they don't do horribly when they are not - but I was expecting that defensive tenacity to reflect more than it does in this statistic.
Also - I agree with Oh my. I didn't see anything that was an obvious foul.
This is completely in line with something that Dan was saying earlier in the week:
"Mike Brown's inability to make halftime adjusts is legendary in these parts and it could very well be the team's downfall."
I wanted to come with a statistic which I think captures that inability to make 2nd half adjustments. The logic is as follows, which I think follows some of the logic JDanziger proposed after my up-at-half analysis earlier:
(1) A good 2nd half adjustment is marked by a shift in the score in the second half. If you are losing at halftime, and you make a good 2nd half adjustment then you should be more likely to win the game then if you did not make a 2nd half adjustment.
(2) Therefore, if you are GOOD at making 2nd half adjustments, then the proportion of games you win when you are down at half should be closer to the proportion of games that you win when you are up at the half (proportional, because it is feasible that a team could make good 2nd half adjustments, but win very few games overall). There is a confound with teams that just blow leads - which I will address below.
Top 5 teams who are MUCH MORE LIKELY TO WIN IF THEY ARE UP AT THE HALF;
If you didn't follow my logic above, these are the teams who FAIL TO MAKE 2ND HALF CORRECTIONS WHEN THEY ARE LOSING.
(1) KNICKS
(2) SUNS
(3) BULLS
(4) CAVS
(5) CLIPPERS
Something seems right about these teams - esp. KNICKS, SUNS and CAVS. This seems to support Dan's point, the CAVS are 40-9 when winning at the half, 10-23 (or ~30%) otherwise. However, it is not the worst company to be in.
Top 8 teams for whom it matters least if they are up at the half;
I am saying these are the teams who, when they are losing adjust and come back to win or teams who BLOW LEADS. In brackets is the winning % when up at the half. Teams with a LOW % probably blow leads (think about it - the CELTICS LOSE AS MANY GAMES THEY LEAD AT HALF TIME AS THEY WIN).
(1) MAVS (91%)
(2) T-WOLVES (55%)
(3) BUCKS (51%)
(4) CELTICS (50%)
(5) NUGGETS (68%)
(6) JAZZ (74%)
(7) PACERS (63%)
(8) NETS (65%)
I am tossing the T-Wolves, Bucks and Celts whose winning % on these games is significantly below the league average, leaving my FINAL FIVE GOOD ADJUSTERS
MAVS, NUGS, JAZZ, PACERS, NETS
This resolves some of my questions on whether the MAVS or SUNS were a better team this year. The SUNS were up at HALF 8 more times than the MAVS and their records were virtually indistiguishable. But the MAVS managed to win 2/3 of the games that they were losing at half, while the SUNS only won 1/3 of the games. That is awesome (They are the only team who wins the majority of the games they are losing at half - the next best team is the JAZZ who win 2/5). Their winning % when they WERE LOSING AT HALFTIME was better than ALL BUT THREE TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE OVERALL WINNING %.
The SPURS were up at HALF more than any other team in the league, with a shocking 68 games (7 more than the suns, 15 more than the jazz and mavs who were tied). However, when they were losing at the half - the only won 4/14 games. BAD AND BORING!
The PISTONS to finish up the remaining playoff teams are pretty middling. They do well when they at winning - they don't do horribly when they are not - but I was expecting that defensive tenacity to reflect more than it does in this statistic.
Also - I agree with Oh my. I didn't see anything that was an obvious foul.
Lucky Chances
So I did not get to watch Game 2.
But I have watched a lot of replays.
There is on-and-off contact on the drive,
and the shot seems to be released awkwardly,
but I'm not seeing a huge foul on the actual shot.
And here's some things I saw today:
" Here's my question for Cavs fans: down by one in the final minute of an away game in a hostile arena, would you rather have (A) LeBron shooting two free throws, or (B) three players take shots within 10 feet? "
" When he stood up from the podium after his sit-down with the media, Rasheed Wallace asked the media if anyone knew what the lottery jackpot currently was worth. What numbers might he play? Why 7-9-7-6, of course. He walked off saying, "I'm definitely playing that tonight. "
Also -- Chris Sheridan on espn today is way out of control. That guy is still apparently still mad at SHEED for throwing a can of orange soda at him. Who would bother to write that it was "orange" soda? That's excessive. Plus, he mentions that rip "cackles" twice, as if that proves that there was a foul.
TAYSHAUN -- TEAM USA.
He's going to have a big game in game 3 or game 4.
They're calling him the Witness Protection Program
for shutting down Jesus, I mean, He Who Is Witnessed.
But I have watched a lot of replays.
There is on-and-off contact on the drive,
and the shot seems to be released awkwardly,
but I'm not seeing a huge foul on the actual shot.
And here's some things I saw today:
" Here's my question for Cavs fans: down by one in the final minute of an away game in a hostile arena, would you rather have (A) LeBron shooting two free throws, or (B) three players take shots within 10 feet? "
" When he stood up from the podium after his sit-down with the media, Rasheed Wallace asked the media if anyone knew what the lottery jackpot currently was worth. What numbers might he play? Why 7-9-7-6, of course. He walked off saying, "I'm definitely playing that tonight. "
Also -- Chris Sheridan on espn today is way out of control. That guy is still apparently still mad at SHEED for throwing a can of orange soda at him. Who would bother to write that it was "orange" soda? That's excessive. Plus, he mentions that rip "cackles" twice, as if that proves that there was a foul.
TAYSHAUN -- TEAM USA.
He's going to have a big game in game 3 or game 4.
They're calling him the Witness Protection Program
for shutting down Jesus, I mean, He Who Is Witnessed.
An Egregious Error
I don't have much to say about last night's bitter defeat. It speaks for itself. To leave Detroit without a split is beyond disappointing. Much will be made about the non-call on LeBron's final drive and the team's subsequent silence in the locker room afterwards. Ignore it all. You only need to read ESPN's Chris Sheridan, who put it perfectly:
"The Cavs had a right to be angry, and I felt Brown had an obligation to at least show a little emotion. If he wanted to go ballistic and spend $50,000 getting it off his chest, that would have been acceptable, too. I just didn't like the whole specter of the Cavs slinking off into the night looking like they were almost afraid to stand up for themselves. They got robbed, and either their coach or their superstar should have found a way to say so."
After that non-call and Mike Brown's quiet acceptance, there is no way to not feel like Cleveland is a second-rate sports town undeserving of a voice or a fair shake. At least that's the way it plays in my opinion.
Blasketball
Jason Maxiell is VERY GOOD AT BASKETBALL.
More than other people who play in the NBA.
This game seems like it was played to answer Dan's last post. Same exact situation as last game (lead at half, third quarter flop, even down 79-76 with seconds on the clock) AND as if listening to ALL OF THE CRITIQUES, LEBRON SHOT IT. And missed. And sportswriters may WANT TO WRITE ABOUT HOW HE SHOULD HAVE PASSED. But they can't, because they can't have it both ways. So instead they have to write about how the CAVS blew it again, and how the "grizzled" (which, by the way, I don't really understand as an adjective) Pistons can reveal weaknesses which we never would have seen in this team.
Unless you watched the regular season games.
Or half of the NETS series for that matter.
More than other people who play in the NBA.
This game seems like it was played to answer Dan's last post. Same exact situation as last game (lead at half, third quarter flop, even down 79-76 with seconds on the clock) AND as if listening to ALL OF THE CRITIQUES, LEBRON SHOT IT. And missed. And sportswriters may WANT TO WRITE ABOUT HOW HE SHOULD HAVE PASSED. But they can't, because they can't have it both ways. So instead they have to write about how the CAVS blew it again, and how the "grizzled" (which, by the way, I don't really understand as an adjective) Pistons can reveal weaknesses which we never would have seen in this team.
Unless you watched the regular season games.
Or half of the NETS series for that matter.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Typical Cavaliers
I've decided to boycott sports talk shows and television today because I can't stand to hear another minute about how LeBron passed up a game-tying layup for a game-winning three. Sports pundits, both local and national, who obsess about the final shot are missing the bigger picture. The game was not decided when Dinosaur Marshall bricked another shot, but when the Cavs emerged from the locker room for the third quarter thinking the game over. Mike Brown's inability to make halftime adjusts is legendary in these parts and it could very well be the team's downfall. Only Lloyd Carr is a worse halftime tactician, but that's a different issue. Props to Flippard Saunders and the Pistons for adjusting to the Cavs first half successes. You deserve Game One more than Cleveland. I'm not going to call Game Two a must-win, but it's close.
Monday, May 21, 2007
Everybody Must Go Through Detroit
Have people seen the Nike commerical where old, wise LeBron describes the many NBA greats who had to beat the Pistons to reach the pinnacle? He might as well be talking about Cleveland sports in general. The Cavs have reached the Eastern finals for the first time in 15 years and the energy in NE Ohio for our team is electric. I always judge the magnitude of a sporting event by whether or not I hear individuals I know not to be sports fans talking about said event. In the case of the Cavs/Pistons series, I certainly do.
But back to the rivalry. I'm so happy the Cavs are playing Detroit with a chance to reach the finals. No other opponent is more appropriate. Should Cleveland prevail, we will know the club truly deserves their spot as the Eastern Conference's finals representative. I believe the league and the viewing public at-large are rooting for LeBron and the Cavaliers. The Pistons are a highly respected team and their five consecutive trips to the conference finals are amazing. However, it is time for LeBron to beat Detroit and bring the city some sort of title, if only an Eastern Conference one. For everything James is, a champion he is not yet. The Cavs haven't won a single division, conference, or league title since his anointment as our king. We've lived on his potential long enough. Bring us a banner.
Let me be clear: The Cavaliers aren't better than the Pistons. If basketball ability were the only factor in the series, the Pistons would win handily. But I'm banking on James and the rest of the Cavs to will their way past Detroit and give us something more then next year to talk about. I predict the Cavs will win in seven ugly games. What do you think Pistons fans?
Not only is Detroit in the way for the Cavs, but also the Indians. Somehow the MLB season is almost two months old and the Tigers and Indians have yet to play. That changes this weekend in Detroit. Between Memorial Day weekend and the end of September, the two clubs play sixteen times. Once again, a very talented, balanced Detroit team stands in the way of an up-and-coming Cleveland franchise. I can't wait to see these two teams slug it out for months. And though I think both teams will make the playoffs as a division winner and wild card, they will be playing for playoff seeding and home field advantage. If the Indians have shown anything this season, it's that they desperately need as many games at Jacobs Field as possible.
I only wish the Browns and Lions would both come out of nowhere this season and meet in the Super Bowl. That would be the only true capper to this great budding rivalry between Cleveland and Detroit.
But back to the rivalry. I'm so happy the Cavs are playing Detroit with a chance to reach the finals. No other opponent is more appropriate. Should Cleveland prevail, we will know the club truly deserves their spot as the Eastern Conference's finals representative. I believe the league and the viewing public at-large are rooting for LeBron and the Cavaliers. The Pistons are a highly respected team and their five consecutive trips to the conference finals are amazing. However, it is time for LeBron to beat Detroit and bring the city some sort of title, if only an Eastern Conference one. For everything James is, a champion he is not yet. The Cavs haven't won a single division, conference, or league title since his anointment as our king. We've lived on his potential long enough. Bring us a banner.
Let me be clear: The Cavaliers aren't better than the Pistons. If basketball ability were the only factor in the series, the Pistons would win handily. But I'm banking on James and the rest of the Cavs to will their way past Detroit and give us something more then next year to talk about. I predict the Cavs will win in seven ugly games. What do you think Pistons fans?
Not only is Detroit in the way for the Cavs, but also the Indians. Somehow the MLB season is almost two months old and the Tigers and Indians have yet to play. That changes this weekend in Detroit. Between Memorial Day weekend and the end of September, the two clubs play sixteen times. Once again, a very talented, balanced Detroit team stands in the way of an up-and-coming Cleveland franchise. I can't wait to see these two teams slug it out for months. And though I think both teams will make the playoffs as a division winner and wild card, they will be playing for playoff seeding and home field advantage. If the Indians have shown anything this season, it's that they desperately need as many games at Jacobs Field as possible.
I only wish the Browns and Lions would both come out of nowhere this season and meet in the Super Bowl. That would be the only true capper to this great budding rivalry between Cleveland and Detroit.
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