I came up with another seemingly important statistic.
Actually - I saw it in a college basketball game I was watching and it made me think.
The statistic is: what proportion of the time, when a team misses, does it get its own rebound? (calculated using this equation: (offensive rebounds/(total fg attempts - fgs)))
Top 6 teams:
1. NY Knicks: 31% of the time
2. Utah Jazz 30% of the time
3. Cavs 29%
4. Denver Nugs 28%
5. Pacers 28%
6. NOLA 28%
Bottom 6 teams:
6. Grizz 24%
5. Heat 24%
4. Spurs 24%
3. Kings 22%
2. Raptors 21%
1. Suns 21%
So... having calculated this, I don't know how to interpret it. Intuitively, it seems to be a measure of hustle somehow. It CLEARLY has nothing to do with how many games a team will win (the correlation between this and winning percentage= 0.05 for those interested). Alternatively, it might have to do with a style of play. Thoughts?
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Wow -- Thoroughly confusing! Until we figure it out, can we call this the DLI ?? (David Lee Index)
Hmm- I suppose you'd have to factor in second chance shooting percentage as well - perhaps a harder statistic to calculate. Unless you're willing to look only at overall shooting pct, which could well be sufficient.
For instance, if the Knicks shoot 40% from the floor, and the Suns 45%, then a) not getting offensive boards is less crucial for the Suns because the team is already scoring more points and b) when they DO get offensive rebounds, they're significantly more likely to convert. Could you create an index of: offensive rebound pct + overall shooting percentage? How would this affect the rankings? Would it be better aligned with winning percentage?
B
OK--
I think that I have some insight into the DLI.
I think it has to do with the style of play.
DLI correlates positively (p=0.43) with Free Throw Attempts.
DLI correlates negatively (p=-0.32) with Three Point Attempts.
So (maybe not surprisingly) for teams that play ferocious basketball not necessarily smoothly or skillfully (Knicks, Nuggets), that ferocity is both in drawing fouls and getting their own rebound.
Teams that play picture perfect basketball (Spurs, Suns) that involve set plays are so surprised when their shots don't fall.
Or else it really just is Lee, Boozer, and Camby.
Of course there are exceptions:
(1) Memphis Grizzlies: 1592 FTA (3rd overall), DLI: 0.24 (6th from worst)
(2) Kings: 1534 FTA (6th overall), DLI: o.22 (3rd from worst)
But those teams really suck and don't seem to care about hustling.
On the other end:
(1) Hornets 6th in DLI (0.28), 7th fewest FTA (1272)
(2) Pistons 7th in DLI (0.28), 8th fewest FTA (1282)
These offensive rebounds might not be because of reckless abandon...
Re: Shooting percentage...
Teams with a high shooting percentage (not surprisingly) tend to be teams with a higher winning percentage. I guess that I wanted to know was, regardless of shooting percentage, how well does this rebounding stat predict winning.
This statistic is different from just number of Offensive boards EXACTLY because it does not include shooting percentage. A team which takes and misses a lot of shots is going may get more offensive boards JUST BECAUSE they have more opportunities. Another way of reading this statistic (closer to what it actually means) is Offensive Rebounds per Offensive Rebound opportunity.
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