So, the Red Sox. Looking pretty good. Positives:
* Eight game division lead with 57 left to play; only six games left against the Yankees
* Only 26 of the 57 remaining games are against teams currently at or above .500, and 10 of those 26 are vs. Toronto and Minnesota
* Lowest team ERA in the AL
* Very healthy RS:RA (542:417)
* Josh Beckett's lack of blisters and resulting ability to throw his breaking stuff
* Manny is starting to pick it up, and Schilling is on the way back
* Okajima in the eighth
* Papelbon in the ninth
* Lowell so far avoiding his usual second half slide (.344/.390/.490 in July)
* Crisp finally hitting
Negatives:
* JD Drew
* Julio Lugo
* Sloppy fielding on the left side of the infield (Lowell and Lugo own 24 of the team's 55 errors)
* Ortiz hasn't looked right since returning
Jury still out:
* Matsuzaka's line of 144.0 IP, 12-7 W-L, 3.75 ERA, 142 K somehow looks much better to me than how I've seen him pitch. Based on anecdotal viewage, his MO seems to be to allow a frightening number of baserunners who somehow never score as often than they should. But even so, his results have been good as he's adjusted to a new, more difficult league, and with more experience it seems he could be a legitimate ace. Or he could just turn out to be Hideo Nomo mk. II, which wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. At least Matsuzaka can actually pitch, unlike Kei Igawa.
This doesn't feel like a great team the way the 2003/2004 squads did (due to their historically good hitting), but on the whole I like its chances. It seems to me like all four teams that make the AL playoffs will have a good shot at the Series, but the Sox are clearly the front-runners. Feels weird/good to type that.
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I want to point out that Ben's prediction that the Cubs will win the NL Central (which I think I mocked more than once) is looking better every day.
Speaking of the Cubs, is there a more baffling player than Alfonso Soriano? For example: his frequent lapses in concentration, his poor fielding, being traded from the Yankees for A-Rod, his extreme home/road splits while with Texas, the standoff in Washington over playing the OF followed by a 40/40 season, his outlandish contract, and finally his horrible start to '07 followed by recently hot hitting as the Cubs make a push for the division? He's just generally streaky, I guess, but somehow I still never know what to think of this guy.
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With the country's conflicted feelings about Bonds hitting 756 (as you're probably aware, surveys show large numbers of people do want him to break the record, especially among minorities), as well as the continuing and related steroid shitstorm, this is probably the last warm-and-fuzzy moment for MLB for a while. I'm trying to enjoy it while I can...
5 comments:
Nice post, Greg.
On the Sox: the lead over the Yanks looks increasingly stable (the Indians' wild card lead is a different story for a different day). NY's vaunted 25-game stretch of games against sub-.500 teams is down to about a dozen games. The Yankees have played great so far post-break, but the Sox have held their own, even matching NY's recent longish win streak. Division-wise, the Yanks need to make up at least four games in the next, say, fifteen days, if they are to have a chance, and I don't see that happening.
Matsuzaka's season is weirdly colored by a couple of factors - one being that hitters haven't seen him much, and the other being his own adjustment. I don't think the Nomo comparison is a stretch, nor a bad thing; he had 150 wins! But next year will be a better bellwether.
Ortiz has only been back for, like, five games. How is that not in the "jury still out" column?
You're right, they don't feel like a great team. They may or may not even win 100 games. But they have a lot of important tools for the playoffs, and they're a true veteran club with tons of depth. I wouldn't bet against them right now.
On the Cubs: I've watched a few Brewers games lately and I have to say I have a lot of respect for them. In a way they remind me of last year's Tigers, except they have even fewer veteran guys. I could see them picking up another starter in the offseason, but as far their lineup they're probably best off just letting their players mature a bit. Nevertheless, like the 2006 Tigers, they were a sure bet to falter down the stretch. I still expect them to make the playoffs as the wild card, but the Cubs are slightly better built to beat the shit out of the rest of the NL Central. The fact that it took them this long to climb above .500 is the only surprise for me.
Don't forget that I also predicted the Phillies to win the East. My prediction does not change, regardless of a Texeira deal in Atlanta. Some people will be amazed to see the Mets out of the playoffs altogether, but they shouldn't be.
Finally, yeah, the Bonds thing feels like another sport altogether. It's like the whole story is playing out in a crystal castle floating above the rest of the league and the world. The Giants are totally uninteresting but for their supervillain whose great work of ego is nearing completion, and we're all obliged to ooh and ahh. I guess some of us are genuinely impressed. I will be much happier when A-Rod passes Bonds in seven or eight years. He's a lot like Maris - widely despised and disrespected, no matter what he does, and despite generally good intentions totally lonely at the top. That's a good character type for a home run record holder.
Although this new Canseco book could change things, am I right?
Greg, I find it surprising to see that you consider the admission of the first android and the first homosexual to the Hall of Fame to be a "warm-and-fuzzy moment." I think it's such a shame that people are so upset about players taking totally legitimate, doctor-prescribed "baseball medicine" while these freaks are going to be honored for time in memoriam. Some barriers were never meant to be broken.
Ben, I gotta say, I still don't believe in the Phillies, their rotation is teh suck. What makes you think the Mets are going to fade?
And wait, Ted, is Ripken the robot? And then what makes Tony Gwynn gay?
Have you ever heard him speak? C'mon...
The Phillies rotation is pretty bad, but then again the Mets' entire staff is either too young or too old.
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