well, akronites, i almost posted a HUGE congratulations for the browns taking GONE FISHIN' joe thomas instead of brady quinn at number 3. but, wow!! getting him at 22. very interesting! does that mean they can pay him a small enough contract to not be completely stuck with him if he doesn't pan out?? they should load that conract with incentives instead of guaranteed money.
also, i will be scouting YOUR TRIBE in oakland on may 17th.
and, well, imagine the beauty of both miami and dallas getting tossed in the first round. i have so much to say about the warriors that if i actually start i will probably lose coherence very quickly. BUT, check out baron davis wearing a hat that has bullets in it: http://www.thebasketballjones.net/2007/04/27/baron-davis-kick-ass-bullet-fedora/
AND,
mavs = nba champions 2008?
think about this pattern in the NBA:
pistons '05 -- bitter loss in the finals
pistons '06 -- avenging finals loss by taking it all out on the regular season, then a completely disappointing playoffs
pistons '07 -- (we can all see the future -- obviously, pistons WIN!)
mavs '06 -- bitter loss in the finals
mavs '07 -- avenging finals loss by taking it all out on the regular season, then (if the W's can just fiercely clamp down tomorrow in game 4), a completely disappointing playoffs
mavs '08 -- sure, whatever
this is also based on THE COLTS and THE CARDINALS,
who each amassed a league-dominant record that led to a failed playoff, and followed up with an ordinary regular season that culminated in an actual championship.
Saturday, April 28, 2007
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Playoff rhythms
The general press reaction to the Bulls going up 2-0 against the Heat, if I could amalgamate some headlines, is something like "Heat in Familiar Position against Hungry but Untested Foe; Looking Forward to Winning Game 3."
I suppose the NBA is accustomed to just this kind of rhythm, and this year's Heat did, after all, fulfill the common prophesy of catching the Wizards to claim their division title even though they were under .500 at the all-star break.
But wait! The Wizards were horrible! They went 2-8 to close out the season, and even before Agent Zero got hurt, they'd lost six-out-of-eight. That team fucking sucks!
If the Pistons were somehow down to the Magic 2-0, as a fan you'd feel a little nervous but still probably forecase four straight subsequent wins for Detroit. But the Heat are not the Pistons. I think they can win one at home, but I doubt they can win 2. Down 3-1, with two more games at the United Center, they won't have a prayer.
In my mind, and maybe in reality, there are certain Nintendo-esque rhythms in an even or closely matched playoff series. A team can play at a "turbo" level for perhaps one or two non-consecutive games per series. But doing so early can be perilous, not only because it depletes energy storages but because failing to win in turbo mode damages morale. Therefore, the Heat COULD play game three at turbo mode, but it would leave them critically vulnerable in game 4, even if they pulled it out. The Bulls, meanwhile, only need to turn it on once more in the next three games to put the Heat on the brink of elimination. Inasmuch as they're the better team, in any games where neither squad is turbo-active I would expect the Bulls to clean up.
I suppose the NBA is accustomed to just this kind of rhythm, and this year's Heat did, after all, fulfill the common prophesy of catching the Wizards to claim their division title even though they were under .500 at the all-star break.
But wait! The Wizards were horrible! They went 2-8 to close out the season, and even before Agent Zero got hurt, they'd lost six-out-of-eight. That team fucking sucks!
If the Pistons were somehow down to the Magic 2-0, as a fan you'd feel a little nervous but still probably forecase four straight subsequent wins for Detroit. But the Heat are not the Pistons. I think they can win one at home, but I doubt they can win 2. Down 3-1, with two more games at the United Center, they won't have a prayer.
In my mind, and maybe in reality, there are certain Nintendo-esque rhythms in an even or closely matched playoff series. A team can play at a "turbo" level for perhaps one or two non-consecutive games per series. But doing so early can be perilous, not only because it depletes energy storages but because failing to win in turbo mode damages morale. Therefore, the Heat COULD play game three at turbo mode, but it would leave them critically vulnerable in game 4, even if they pulled it out. The Bulls, meanwhile, only need to turn it on once more in the next three games to put the Heat on the brink of elimination. Inasmuch as they're the better team, in any games where neither squad is turbo-active I would expect the Bulls to clean up.
Deadball/parity/postponement/VInny
So the number of runs per team per game has gone up significantly since my last post on this subject, unsurprisingly since it's really early and a couple of offensive explosions can easily make up for several slow days.
However, oddly, it remains the case that batting averages are way down from last year. I first noticed this trend when looking at team averages in the Mr. 3000 invitational fantasy league - only one club is above .300, and I believe I'm in second right now at about .285. It turns out that the MLB average is .255, a good 15 points off of last year's average. Moreover, there is near parity between the AL and NL. This suggests that pitching in the AL is exceptional this year, since the parity is achieved in spite of facing 11% more good hitters than in a league without the DH.
OR I guess, pitchers could be hitting really well in the NL, but that doesn't appear to be true.
Meanwhile, another Mariners game was postponed.
Finally, on A-Rod - ESPN.com has a survey asking who fans believe to be the best Latino third-baseman of all-time. Notwithstanding A-Rod's unclear self-identification as such, it would be very amusing to me if Castilla received a single vote in this contest. Has there ever been a more outlandish beneficiary of the thin Coors air? To wit: Castilla's first full season was with the Rockies in 1995, when he hit an impressive 32 homeruns with 90 RBIS to boot. He hit 30/100 for each of the next four seasons, consistently batting around .300.
He went to Tampa Bay in 2000 (I guess they felt that if he could help one expansion team he could help another), where in 331 at-bats he hit 6 homeruns and walked the Mendoza line at a cool .221. After a few more mediocre years with a variety of teams, he was traded BACK to Colorado, in a grand experiment. Castilla returned to form at 35/131/.271. Sadly, the next year he was shipped to the Nationals (I guess the TB lesson wasn't fully apparent), where he hit 12 homeruns in 500 at-bats, before retiring at the end of last season.
However, oddly, it remains the case that batting averages are way down from last year. I first noticed this trend when looking at team averages in the Mr. 3000 invitational fantasy league - only one club is above .300, and I believe I'm in second right now at about .285. It turns out that the MLB average is .255, a good 15 points off of last year's average. Moreover, there is near parity between the AL and NL. This suggests that pitching in the AL is exceptional this year, since the parity is achieved in spite of facing 11% more good hitters than in a league without the DH.
OR I guess, pitchers could be hitting really well in the NL, but that doesn't appear to be true.
Meanwhile, another Mariners game was postponed.
Finally, on A-Rod - ESPN.com has a survey asking who fans believe to be the best Latino third-baseman of all-time. Notwithstanding A-Rod's unclear self-identification as such, it would be very amusing to me if Castilla received a single vote in this contest. Has there ever been a more outlandish beneficiary of the thin Coors air? To wit: Castilla's first full season was with the Rockies in 1995, when he hit an impressive 32 homeruns with 90 RBIS to boot. He hit 30/100 for each of the next four seasons, consistently batting around .300.
He went to Tampa Bay in 2000 (I guess they felt that if he could help one expansion team he could help another), where in 331 at-bats he hit 6 homeruns and walked the Mendoza line at a cool .221. After a few more mediocre years with a variety of teams, he was traded BACK to Colorado, in a grand experiment. Castilla returned to form at 35/131/.271. Sadly, the next year he was shipped to the Nationals (I guess the TB lesson wasn't fully apparent), where he hit 12 homeruns in 500 at-bats, before retiring at the end of last season.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Not to alarm you...
But Arod is on pace to:
Bat .400
Hit 126 HR
Hit 306 RBIs
Hit 234 runs
Also, a single tear as 1/9 of the baseball season has passed.
Also, orioles -- still above 0.500
Also - not to argue with jacob - not only did the warriors lead the league in steals, blocks, and turn-overs forced, they also led the league in number of points they let other people score against them AT 107 PPG. I don't know if that is because of the rocky start to the season (maybe since they gelled they have only let people score 102 PPG), but they do seem to let people score on them. Imagine if they didn't steal the ball or force so many turnovers. They would be giving up like 120-125 points a game. I like the warriors because they have constructed a way to play the game of basketball that i have never seen before -- and it works!
Bat .400
Hit 126 HR
Hit 306 RBIs
Hit 234 runs
Also, a single tear as 1/9 of the baseball season has passed.
Also, orioles -- still above 0.500
Also - not to argue with jacob - not only did the warriors lead the league in steals, blocks, and turn-overs forced, they also led the league in number of points they let other people score against them AT 107 PPG. I don't know if that is because of the rocky start to the season (maybe since they gelled they have only let people score 102 PPG), but they do seem to let people score on them. Imagine if they didn't steal the ball or force so many turnovers. They would be giving up like 120-125 points a game. I like the warriors because they have constructed a way to play the game of basketball that i have never seen before -- and it works!
Monday, April 23, 2007
consider this: consistently best
how about magic johnson and charles barkley at halftime of the gsw/dallas game, having trouble articulating their disgust, resorting to describing the warriors simply as "helter-skelter", using that phrase at least 12 times??!
here's what people don't understand about the warriors:
phoenix made a gamble a few seasons ago. the idea being that you don't have to play defense as long as you can always outscore your opponent. people think that this only works because of steve nash, and that somehow, phoenix can produce points at a rate that no other team can. toronto tried to play phoenix-style, but failed, beacuse they actually can't score so prolifically as to offset a non-existent defense. people (and by people, i often mean 'charles barkley') look at the warriors, and say, "oh, they're trying to do the phoenix thing. they'll try to run a fast break on every play. therefore, we may conclude without further observation that they must not be playing defense." WHOAH, NELLIE! What Don Nelson proves (and maybe the Suns should "go to school for this") is that you can play small ball and defense at the same time. In fact, a stifling, crazy smallball version of defense. I think the Warriors are in the top 5 in the whole league right now, defensively. Detroit, San Antonio, Chicago, Denver, Golden State...who else?? The warriors, if I am not mistaken, LEAD THE LEAGUE in both steals, blocks, and turnovers-forced. And Monta Ellis leads the league in fast-break points, at 375. More than LeBron and 'Melo at 2 and 3. So, Charles Barkley, explain to me exactly what kind of defense the warriors are "not playing" ?!!!
here's what people don't understand about the warriors:
phoenix made a gamble a few seasons ago. the idea being that you don't have to play defense as long as you can always outscore your opponent. people think that this only works because of steve nash, and that somehow, phoenix can produce points at a rate that no other team can. toronto tried to play phoenix-style, but failed, beacuse they actually can't score so prolifically as to offset a non-existent defense. people (and by people, i often mean 'charles barkley') look at the warriors, and say, "oh, they're trying to do the phoenix thing. they'll try to run a fast break on every play. therefore, we may conclude without further observation that they must not be playing defense." WHOAH, NELLIE! What Don Nelson proves (and maybe the Suns should "go to school for this") is that you can play small ball and defense at the same time. In fact, a stifling, crazy smallball version of defense. I think the Warriors are in the top 5 in the whole league right now, defensively. Detroit, San Antonio, Chicago, Denver, Golden State...who else?? The warriors, if I am not mistaken, LEAD THE LEAGUE in both steals, blocks, and turnovers-forced. And Monta Ellis leads the league in fast-break points, at 375. More than LeBron and 'Melo at 2 and 3. So, Charles Barkley, explain to me exactly what kind of defense the warriors are "not playing" ?!!!
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Saturday, April 21, 2007
Live Bloggings with the Bulls
Well, I don't know what's going to happen in this series, but it is very possible that Dwyane Wade is Jesus.
20 seconds left -- Ben Wallace with the "$60 Million Dollar Offensive Rebound" -- quite literally, that could have just won game 1.
Earlier today, wow did the Raptors look vulnerable. Nets/Cavs could be a beautiful series.
10 seconds left -- Hmm. Wade not Jesus. He missed. Or, Jesus still doesn't have 3-point range.
It is possible that the Raptors might have executed better down the stretch with Garbajosa in there
to take some of those 3-pointers. This is the rare situation where you can say, "they missed the rookie's veteran experience"
0.00 - BULLS WIN.
20 seconds left -- Ben Wallace with the "$60 Million Dollar Offensive Rebound" -- quite literally, that could have just won game 1.
Earlier today, wow did the Raptors look vulnerable. Nets/Cavs could be a beautiful series.
10 seconds left -- Hmm. Wade not Jesus. He missed. Or, Jesus still doesn't have 3-point range.
It is possible that the Raptors might have executed better down the stretch with Garbajosa in there
to take some of those 3-pointers. This is the rare situation where you can say, "they missed the rookie's veteran experience"
0.00 - BULLS WIN.
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