2nd half adjustment statistics

An interesting stat from the game last night was that in the past four games, the Cavs were outscored by an average of 10 points in the third quarter. WOW!

This is completely in line with something that Dan was saying earlier in the week:
"Mike Brown's inability to make halftime adjusts is legendary in these parts and it could very well be the team's downfall."

I wanted to come with a statistic which I think captures that inability to make 2nd half adjustments. The logic is as follows, which I think follows some of the logic JDanziger proposed after my up-at-half analysis earlier:

(1) A good 2nd half adjustment is marked by a shift in the score in the second half. If you are losing at halftime, and you make a good 2nd half adjustment then you should be more likely to win the game then if you did not make a 2nd half adjustment.

(2) Therefore, if you are GOOD at making 2nd half adjustments, then the proportion of games you win when you are down at half should be closer to the proportion of games that you win when you are up at the half (proportional, because it is feasible that a team could make good 2nd half adjustments, but win very few games overall). There is a confound with teams that just blow leads - which I will address below.

Top 5 teams who are MUCH MORE LIKELY TO WIN IF THEY ARE UP AT THE HALF;
If you didn't follow my logic above, these are the teams who FAIL TO MAKE 2ND HALF CORRECTIONS WHEN THEY ARE LOSING.

(1) KNICKS
(2) SUNS
(3) BULLS
(4) CAVS
(5) CLIPPERS

Something seems right about these teams - esp. KNICKS, SUNS and CAVS. This seems to support Dan's point, the CAVS are 40-9 when winning at the half, 10-23 (or ~30%) otherwise. However, it is not the worst company to be in.

Top 8 teams for whom it matters least if they are up at the half;
I am saying these are the teams who, when they are losing adjust and come back to win or teams who BLOW LEADS. In brackets is the winning % when up at the half. Teams with a LOW % probably blow leads (think about it - the CELTICS LOSE AS MANY GAMES THEY LEAD AT HALF TIME AS THEY WIN).

(1) MAVS (91%)
(2) T-WOLVES (55%)
(3) BUCKS (51%)
(4) CELTICS (50%)
(5) NUGGETS (68%)
(6) JAZZ (74%)
(7) PACERS (63%)
(8) NETS (65%)

I am tossing the T-Wolves, Bucks and Celts whose winning % on these games is significantly below the league average, leaving my FINAL FIVE GOOD ADJUSTERS

MAVS, NUGS, JAZZ, PACERS, NETS

This resolves some of my questions on whether the MAVS or SUNS were a better team this year. The SUNS were up at HALF 8 more times than the MAVS and their records were virtually indistiguishable. But the MAVS managed to win 2/3 of the games that they were losing at half, while the SUNS only won 1/3 of the games. That is awesome (They are the only team who wins the majority of the games they are losing at half - the next best team is the JAZZ who win 2/5). Their winning % when they WERE LOSING AT HALFTIME was better than ALL BUT THREE TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE OVERALL WINNING %.

The SPURS were up at HALF more than any other team in the league, with a shocking 68 games (7 more than the suns, 15 more than the jazz and mavs who were tied). However, when they were losing at the half - the only won 4/14 games. BAD AND BORING!

The PISTONS to finish up the remaining playoff teams are pretty middling. They do well when they at winning - they don't do horribly when they are not - but I was expecting that defensive tenacity to reflect more than it does in this statistic.

Also - I agree with Oh my. I didn't see anything that was an obvious foul.