Taking a break from writing a paper.
I can't claim to understand how the Warriors have gone up 3-1 on the Mavericks, though I'm glad they have. I tend to check tradesports.com in these situations to see what the betting masses expect - GS has a 68% of winning the series, if cash-on-the-barrelhead is any indication. In some sense Dallas remains in a fine position to take the series back. Game 5 is actually quite crucial, rhythmically, for the Warriors. If they happen to lose it, then game 6 will be REALLY tough, with Dallas seeking to avenge the earlier home loss. Then it's down to game 7, and Dallas would probably have the edge in a balls-out, leave it all on the table rubber match.
Then again, this is discounting the fact that Golden State appears to be better than Dallas. This is probably the lone interesting first-round matchup thus far.
The Cavs put the Wiz out of their misery. What a pointless series. While I predicted the series would go six, I stand by my prediction for its spirit: the Cavs did not even try to dominate, Lebron was fine but hardly in top form, and the defense was mediocre. Giving up 90 points to those fucking scrubs was inexcusable. It would have been nice if, at least for one game, they'd gotten out to a big lead and cruised. I know full well that the Cavs will not underestimate the Pistons/Bulls, if they make the conference finals, but how will they approach the Nets? Betting on Carter is probably not a popular move, but he and Kidd have demonstrated the value of veterans in the playoffs. I fear for what Jason Kidd could do to the Cavs if they don't buckle down.
3 comments:
Ben, you sound so down on the Cavs following what I think was an impressive series against Washington. I know the stats aren't eye-popping and they didn't close games like a second-seed should, but I can't envision how the series could have gone any better.
First, LeBron has to feel good about the way his supporting cast played. From Drew in game 2 to Z in last night's finale, the role players gave good support. When this occurs, LeBron can concentrate on rebounding and distributing the ball. Both his 'bounds and dimes were up significantly over his regular season average.
Second, Z gained some postseason confidence. Last year he disappeared in the playoffs. This season he seems to have more of a bounce in his step and remembers that at 7'3 he towers over most guys who guard him. This confidence is really important, especially if we play New Jersey who has no one to stop him.
Third, the team shot free-throws better. I tried to find their percentage for the series, but couldn't. I know they improved on their 69.5% from the regular season. The Cavs will only go as far as their free-throws take them.
Fourth, they swept a four-game series for the first time in team history! What more could you really ask for? Does a larger point differential really matter? I totally expected them to fall asleep for at least one game and they never did. I give credit where it's due.
Relax Ben. It was a stress-free first round. Now lets root for the Raptors and Nets to go seven (and hopefully a Toronto victory). It doesn't matter though. We're going to the Eastern finals.
Hi Dan.
It's not that I'm down, it's just that I feel the need to show them the tough love that Mike Brown will not.
Yes, sweeping a series is good regardless of how it happens and yes, the supporting cast played well and YES, definitely, the free throw consistency was encouraging.
But it was so clear that they did just enough to win each game, rather than hustling and showing no mercy, that I feel worried about the second round. I would pick the Cavs over either the Nets or Raps, yes, and at least over the Raps I would even be very confident. BUT the reason the Nets worry me is that I imagine the Cavs doing what they did in this series - letting themselves get behind by 3 or 4 points going into the final quarter, assuming they can make up the difference, but then getting stifled by Kidd et al defensively and going cold for four minutes while the deficit reaches double figures.
This series went fine, they won and that's what counts. But they could have practiced honing the killer instinct that championship teams need, and they did not. I remain disappointed about that fact.
Also, I do not expect the other series to go 7. I knew the Raptors would make rookie miscalculations and lose a series to a good defensive team at some point or another, I just didn't realize it would be this early. I thought raw talent would carry them at least to the semifinals. At this point it's clear that the Nets are hungry to play the spoiler, and that they can distribute their scoring in ways that the Raptors cannot. I don't think they have an answer for Kidd-to-Carter. It'll end, at the latest, on Friday in New Jersey.
I think I would be afraid to play the nets. Jason Kidd might be playing the most inspired basketball of his long career. He might have slowed down a bit - but his court sense - which has always been ALMOST UNPARALLELED seems to be getting better every year.
This year despite being 34 years old - more triple doubles than ever before in his career. Not because of some Barry Bonds-esque anti-aging "magic" - he feels older but, if possible, wiser. Currently, he is averaging a triple double against what has been, frankly, a disappointing Raptors team.
Currently he is leading the playoffs in Rebounds/inch^4 - a new metric which accounts for how much harder it is for a short person to get rebounds than say GIANT YAO MING. He was 4th in the league during the regular season in Rebounds/inch^4 after Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard and KG. However, he was second - only to Boozer in Rebounds/inch^5 and first in reounds/inch^6. But I digress.
Fear the Kidd.
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